THE SCHOOLS REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FALL AND CERTAINLY NOT NEXT YEAR
While keeping abreast of individual policies at top US and International MBA programs is certainly critical and something that P&Q covers rather extensively (As does Inside Higher Ed and the Chronicle for mostly US higher education overall), I want to focus on issues that are much bigger than what policy this or that program focuses on. The reason is very simple: I don't think we can should consider what an admissions director, dean of a business school, or even president of a university says at the moment to be a particularly good indicator of what they will be saying in the future. The situation is too unstable to assume that the stated policies of any program on May 8, 2020 will be the same in a few weeks or months. Not a single campus-based program can tell students what fall 2020 will be yet. They are trying to create policies in the light of externalities of public health and visa policies that they have absolutely no control over. One short article I suggest taking a look at, lays out 15 different scenarios for what fall 2020 might look like at US universities (applicable, no doubt with modification, worldwide). All of these scenarios reflect the great uncertainty of what will actually happen with Covid-19 in the coming months. It is certainly safe to assume that whatever the new normal for campus life in fall 2020 will be, it is likely change over the course of the coming days, weeks, months, and possibly years.
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 1: Do not make your plans solely based on what admissions officers or anyone else at a school tells you. The authorities at any educational institution can be operating in complete good faith, but whatever they say should not be assumed to be tomorrow's reality. They don't have control over the situation but will be altering their policies as they are required to. As I have written elsewhere create as much optionality for yourself as possible because you cannot assume what was solid and certain today will be that way tomorrow.
2. COVID-19 IS A PROBLEM WITHOUT AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION BUT WITH CLEAR MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Given that the Coronavirus itself is the primary actor in this situation, it would be wonderful if we could make decisions based on it, not only for admissions strategies but everything else as well. However, public health experts can only provide scenarios of how this pandemic may play itself out. For example, CIDRAP's analysis, which is based on comparing COVID-19 to influenza pandemics, lays out three scenarios for how the virus might act between now and 2022. Their second scenario, which assumes that Covid-19 will actually peak in fall 2020, is particularly bleak and it is the one they recommend planning for. If so, we can assume that just as lockdown measures will have been relaxed in May/June and a new normal will have been established in the summer, we will be back in lockdown in the fall because Covid-19 will be at its devastating peak. In such a scenario, schools that opened their campuses will most likely be shutting them down and just operating online.
We currently have no vaccine or even can assume that herd immunity will work (See here, here, and here). Therefore any application strategy should take account of the fact that the underlying medical cause of this crisis and the means for effectively mitigating it currently consist of testing, lockdowns and social distancing. This a grim scenario but even in that situation, universities can still fulfill the primary function of teaching courses via online instruction and can still grant degrees. For some students that will be enough. Others with expectations related to factors like experiential learning, networking, job placement, and international experience may find that the programs cannot deliver on previously reasonable expectations. Campus life might be non-existent or only a glimmer of itself in 2020, 2021, and even into 2022 but almost any university can fulfill its most basic educational tasks that result in awarding a degree.
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 2: Assume the educational experience at any previously campus-based program will be compromised throughout 2020 and at least into 2021 because of the need for COVID-19 mitigation strategies. How much compromise this might involve is not clear. How long this will last is not clear either. Therefore build expectations about what you can get out of the degree based on what the worst case scenario and hope that you can more than that.
3. INTERNATIONAL VISA ISSUANCE IS SUSPENDED
For anyone who planned to study abroad in 2020, if they don't have a student visa already and a means of getting to the country which they intend/ed to study in, it is totally unclear when they would be able to get a visa. At the time I am writing this this, the US (See here), France (see here), Spain (See here) and UK (see here) have all completely suspended visa issuance. Only the Swiss, even mention a date, June 15th, for possibly commencing issuing visas again. With the possible exception of Singapore (This would involve a legally binding 14-day quarantine), not a single country that my clients regularly move to to study in is currently issuing visas.
I work mostly with applicants applying to study in other countries. While some of my clients are US citizens or residents applying to programs in the US, Europeans applying to programs in the EU, UK citizens or residents applying to programs in the UK, etc., most intend to study overseas. Many international applicants who were admitted for fall 2020 don't have student visas yet. Unless this situation changes soon their attendance will be cancelled, delayed, deferred, and/or conducted solely online. In this sense, their situation is actually clear because schools are increasingly providing 2020 admits with clarity about what their options are. However, at this point, we don't know what 2021 will look like. I hope it is a return to normal but we can't count on that.
IMPACT ON MBA PROGRAMS: Top MBA programs, the kind most of my clients attend, are anywhere from around 30% (Top 10 US schools) to 97% (INSEAD) international. This P&Q article provides all the data. These MBA programs have never had to deal with something that so fundamentally undermines their business model. Even the financial crisis of 2008 was minor by comparison because while it impacted outcomes for some graduates, it did not undermine a large percentage of admits to purchase what was on offer: Get a visa, travel to the school, and experience the program on campus. Our current situation is completely different. The obvious impact is on international students wanting to get academic and possibly work experience in another country that they cannot, at present, travel to. The other impact is on all students who anticipated being in a diverse program and having international educational options in terms of exchange programs and global experiential learning, which will be curtailed, made virtual and/or suspended.
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 3: For anyone primarily focused on 2021 admission to MBA and other graduate programs outside your home country, I recommend you select schools in the following ways:
- The traditional way is three-fold based on perceived difficulty of admission: Reach/Dream, Good Chance, Safety. For more about my portfolio of risk approach, see here for an old post that is still conceptually valid.
- If applicable, beyond risk above, split programs into two categories: (1) Programs you would attend even if is offered on a distance or otherwise altered basis and (2) Programs you would attend only if they are on-campus and offered with the full expected experience. Example for an applicant focused on US Top 10: You are willing to go to Booth (Good chance program), HBS, Wharton and Stanford (dream schools) not matter how those programs are delivered but would only attend Kellogg or Tuck (good chance) and Ross (safety) if those programs were offered on-campus.
- If possible, consider applying to schools in more than one country to further mitigate the visa issue as well as to account for differences of how functional campus life might be. It might be the case that you can attend INSEAD's Singapore campus in person because you can get a visa and travel there and they have Covid-19 under control, but cannot get a visa or have a very compromised experience if you attend a program in the US. While I cannot predict the future, my assumption is that the chances for Switzerland (IMD), France (INSEAD, HEC), UK (LBS, Oxford, Cambridge), and/or Spain (IESE) to open before the US are significant. It might also be worth looking into U. of Toronto Rotman (or other Canadian schools) if Canada opens before the US. Anyone primarily considering a Masters or PhD in the US, should certainly look at programs in the UK.
- Even if you are primarily focused on international programs, consider whether any domestic ones offer a viable option. Examples: For Indian applicants not primarily focused on getting international experience during their MBA and without a primary focus on working in Europe/US after graduating, I would also recommend looking closely at ISB as it might offer a much better risk/return profile under the current circumstances than attending an overseas MBA program. I think Chinese and China-based applicants should consider CEIBS as well as other local options. Anyone in Singapore should consider INSEAD. EU citizens and residents might find it better to stay in the EU than to study in the US.
- Consider distance-based or executive programs. Given the current circumstances, closely assess whether this represents a viable option for you. It might not, but it is at least worth looking into.
4. THIS IS A WORLD HISTORICAL CRISIS
This blog is not the place to discuss such an issue in detail, but the level of total economic, social, and political dislocation that is happening right now seems likely to get much more intense and is something we cannot ignore. Normally, even a recession or localized national problems (Example: A currency crisis or political instability), don't really impact everyone on the planet with respect to graduate school applications or making any other kind of major life decision. Now suddenly it does. Nothing of this scale of negative disruption has occurred globally since World War Two. Hopefully it will be short lived but we cannot assume that. If things begin bouncing to normal in terms of economics and government policies then this will indeed be short lived and things will quickly go back to some kind of new normal. The inherent resistance to systemic change will assert itself and people will want their lives back to normal as quickly as possible. However, we cannot assume that Covid-19 and governmental, economic, and social response to it will enable such a return to normal in 2020, 2021, or possibly even 2022. Therefore it is critical to have strategies for application that account for this:
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 4: Consider your timing. Right now when I conduct initial consultations for prospective clients interested in working with me, I ask them in detail why they want to apply for 2021. I have always asked about why a potential client wants to apply but did not always emphasize the "right now" aspect of the question. If I took a short-term perspective I would never ask this question because it might undermine someone from buying my services immediately. However my business is based on helping my clients get into school and then getting referrals from them. Therefore, beyond any ethical considerations, I take a long-term perspective and frequently suggest that waiting one or more years to apply is a perfectly valid strategy when appropriate. Each person has their own timing for doing things. The point is make sure that you are not rushing into something because everyone does it this way or had been doing it this way when the situation has changed radically. Just be aware of your timing. Ask yourself: Why now? Why not next year? If I don't apply now, what will I do instead? What is the cost to applying now instead of applying later?
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 5: Thrive. Beyond considerations of timing, think about thriving, not just surviving. Survival is a minimally necessary condition but it is insufficient if one is ambitious. I assume my readers and clients are ambitious. Hence, whatever you do, whether it is applying for graduate school in 2021 or whenever or never, have a strategy for thriving. Whatever your constraints, focus on something that will help you thrive. Focus your time and energy on graduate school applications, your career, hobbies, intellectual pursuits, physical fitness, volunteer activities, personal relationships, starting a business, etc. There is no one way to succeed. Overcoming constraints imposed by world historical crisis is not something new for humans, just something new for us. Act with sufficient awareness, flexibility, and focus to thrive. You may ask what that has to do with graduate school application and my answer is simple: Thriving shows growth and growth will get you admitted.
Finally, I wrote this blog post between May 7th and 8th, 2020 and hope that in the coming months I will look back upon it as outdated and too pessimistic.
