Strategies for Applying to Graduate School in Uncertain Times

As I suggested in an earlier blog post, "when you are facing a situation of great unpredictability have multiple winning strategies."  Critical to having an effective strategy for graduate application during these times of great uncertainty is to understand what facts to actually focus on.  While I am concerned with the evolving policies of graduate programs, such as the variable deferment policies coming out of MBA programs (See this excellent P&Q article on that), because it directly impacts my clients who were admitted to programs that commence this year, I am now focused on 2021 admission.  While schools' policies matter, I think a real strategy needs to be formulated based on  the underlying big picture of a global pandemic without a clear solution, the suspension of visa issuance, and massive economic/political/social disruption. The big picture is grim but to think opportunistically requires confronting this reality in order to survive and thrive in it. It means abandoning any assumptions based on a world that ceased to exist a few months ago. 

THE SCHOOLS REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FALL AND CERTAINLY NOT NEXT YEAR
While keeping abreast of individual policies at top US and International MBA programs is certainly critical and something that P&Q covers rather extensively (As does Inside Higher Ed and the Chronicle for mostly US higher education overall), I want to focus on issues that are much bigger than what policy this or that program focuses on.  The reason is very simple: I don't think we can should consider what an admissions director, dean of a business school, or even president of a university says at the moment to be a particularly good indicator of what they will be saying  in the future.  The situation is too unstable to assume that the stated policies of any program on May 8, 2020 will be the same in a few weeks or months.  Not a single campus-based program can tell students what fall 2020 will be yet.  They are trying to create policies in the light of externalities of public health and visa policies that they have absolutely no control over.  One short article I suggest taking a look at, lays out 15 different scenarios for what fall 2020 might look like at US universities (applicable, no doubt with modification, worldwide).  All of these scenarios reflect the great uncertainty of what will actually happen with Covid-19 in the coming months. It is certainly safe to assume that whatever the new normal for campus life in fall 2020 will be, it is likely change over the course of the coming days, weeks, months, and possibly years. 

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 1:  Do not make your plans solely based on what admissions officers or anyone else at a school tells you.  The authorities at any educational institution can be operating in complete good faith, but whatever they say should not be assumed to be tomorrow's reality. They don't have control over the situation but will be altering their policies as they are required to.  As I have written elsewhere create as much optionality for yourself as possible because you cannot assume what was solid and certain today will be that way tomorrow.


2. COVID-19 IS A PROBLEM WITHOUT AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION BUT WITH CLEAR MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Given that the Coronavirus itself is the primary actor in this situation, it would be wonderful if we could make decisions based on it, not only for admissions strategies but everything else as well.  However, public health experts can only provide  scenarios of how this pandemic may play itself out. For example, CIDRAP's analysis, which is based on comparing COVID-19 to influenza pandemics, lays out three scenarios for how the virus might act between now and 2022.  Their second scenario, which assumes that Covid-19 will actually peak in fall 2020, is particularly bleak and it is the one they recommend planning for. If so, we can assume that just as lockdown measures will have been relaxed in May/June and a new normal will have been established in the summer, we will be back in lockdown in the fall because Covid-19 will be at its devastating peak. In such a scenario, schools that opened their campuses will most likely be shutting them down and just operating online.

We currently have no vaccine or even can assume that herd immunity will work (See here, here, and here). Therefore any application strategy should take account of the fact that the underlying medical cause of this crisis and the means for effectively mitigating it currently consist of testing, lockdowns and social distancing. This a grim scenario but even in that situation, universities can still fulfill the primary function of teaching courses via online instruction and can still grant degrees. For some students that will be enough. Others with expectations related to factors like experiential learning, networking, job placement, and international experience may find that the programs cannot deliver on previously reasonable expectations. Campus life might be non-existent or only a glimmer of itself in 2020, 2021, and even into 2022 but almost any university can fulfill its most basic educational tasks that result in awarding a degree.

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 2: Assume the educational experience at any previously campus-based program will be compromised throughout 2020 and at least into 2021 because of the need for COVID-19 mitigation strategies.  How much compromise this might involve is not clear. How long this will last is not clear either.  Therefore build expectations about what you can get out of the degree based on what the worst case scenario  and  hope that you can more than that.


3. INTERNATIONAL VISA ISSUANCE IS SUSPENDED 
For anyone who planned to study abroad in 2020, if they don't have a student visa already and a means of getting to the country which they intend/ed to study in, it is totally unclear when they would be able to get a visa. At the time I am writing this this, the US (See here), France (see here),  Spain (See here) and  UK (see here) have all completely suspended visa issuance.  Only the Swiss, even mention a date, June 15th, for possibly commencing issuing visas again. With the possible exception of Singapore (This would involve a legally binding 14-day quarantine), not a single country that my clients regularly move to to study in is currently issuing visas.

I work mostly with applicants applying to study in other countries.  While some of my clients are US citizens or residents applying to programs in the US, Europeans applying to programs in the EU, UK citizens or residents applying to programs in the UK, etc., most intend to study overseas.  Many international applicants who were admitted for fall 2020 don't have student visas yet.  Unless this situation changes soon their attendance will be cancelled, delayed, deferred, and/or conducted solely online.  In this sense, their situation is actually clear because schools are increasingly providing 2020 admits with clarity about what their options are. However, at this point, we don't know what 2021 will look like. I hope it is a return to normal but we can't count on that.

IMPACT ON MBA PROGRAMS:  Top MBA programs, the kind most of my clients attend, are anywhere from around 30% (Top 10 US schools)  to 97% (INSEAD) international. This P&Q article provides all the data.  These MBA programs have never had to deal with something that so fundamentally undermines their business model.  Even the financial crisis of 2008 was minor by comparison because while it impacted outcomes for some graduates, it did not undermine a large percentage of admits to purchase what was on offer: Get a visa, travel to the school, and experience the program on campus.  Our current situation is completely different. The obvious impact is on international students wanting to get academic and possibly work experience in another country that they cannot, at present, travel to.  The other impact is on all students who anticipated being in a diverse program and having international educational options in terms of exchange programs and global experiential learning, which will be curtailed, made virtual and/or suspended.

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 3: For anyone primarily focused on 2021 admission to MBA and other graduate programs outside your home country,  I recommend you select schools in the following ways:

• The traditional way is three-fold based on perceived  difficulty of admission: Reach/Dream, Good Chance, Safety.  For more about my portfolio of risk approach, see here for an old post that is still conceptually valid.
• If applicable, beyond risk above, split programs into two categories:  (1) Programs you would attend even if is offered on a distance or otherwise altered basis and (2) Programs you would attend only if they are on-campus and offered with the full expected experience.  Example for an applicant focused on US Top 10:  You are willing to go to Booth (Good chance program), HBS, Wharton and Stanford (dream schools) not matter how those programs are delivered but would only attend Kellogg or Tuck (good chance) and Ross (safety) if those programs were offered on-campus.
• If possible, consider applying to schools in more than one country to further mitigate the visa issue as well as to account for differences of how functional campus life might be. It might be the case that you can attend INSEAD's Singapore campus in person because you can get a visa and travel there and they have Covid-19 under control, but cannot get a visa or have a very compromised experience if you attend a program in the US.  While I cannot predict the future, my assumption is that the chances for Switzerland (IMD), France (INSEAD, HEC), UK (LBS, Oxford, Cambridge), and/or Spain (IESE) to open before the US are significant.  It might also be worth looking into U. of Toronto Rotman (or other Canadian schools) if  Canada opens before the US. Anyone primarily considering a Masters or PhD in the US, should certainly look at programs in the UK.
•  Even if you are primarily focused on international programs, consider whether any domestic ones offer a viable option.  Examples: For Indian applicants not primarily focused on getting international experience during their MBA and without a primary focus on working in Europe/US after graduating, I would also recommend looking closely at ISB as it might offer a much better risk/return profile under the current circumstances than attending an overseas MBA program. I think Chinese and China-based applicants should consider CEIBS as well as other local options. Anyone in Singapore should consider INSEAD. EU citizens and residents might find it better to stay in the EU than to study in the US.
• Consider distance-based or executive programs. Given the current circumstances, closely assess whether this represents a viable option for you. It might not, but it is at least worth looking into.

4. THIS IS A WORLD HISTORICAL CRISIS
This blog is not the place to discuss such an issue in detail, but the level of total economic, social, and political dislocation that is happening right now seems likely to get much more intense and is something we cannot ignore. Normally, even a recession or localized national problems (Example: A currency crisis or political instability), don't really impact everyone on the planet with respect to graduate school applications or making any other kind of major life decision. Now suddenly it does.  Nothing of this scale of negative disruption has occurred globally since World War Two.  Hopefully it will be short lived but we cannot assume that. If things begin bouncing to normal in terms of economics and government policies then this will indeed be short lived and things will quickly go back to some kind of new normal.  The inherent resistance to systemic change will assert itself and people will want their lives back to normal as quickly as possible.  However,  we cannot assume that Covid-19 and governmental, economic, and social response to it will enable such a return to normal in 2020, 2021, or possibly even 2022.   Therefore it is critical to have strategies for application that account for this:

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 4:  Consider your timing. Right now when I conduct initial consultations for prospective clients interested in working with me, I ask them in detail why they want to apply for 2021. I have always asked about why a potential client wants to apply but did not always emphasize the "right now" aspect of the question.  If I took a short-term perspective I would never ask this question because it might undermine someone from buying my services immediately.  However my business is based on helping my clients get into school and then getting referrals from them. Therefore, beyond any ethical considerations, I take a long-term perspective and frequently suggest that waiting one or more years to apply is a perfectly valid strategy when appropriate.  Each person has their own timing for doing things.  The point is make sure that you are not rushing into something because everyone does it this way or had been doing it this way when the situation has changed radically.  Just be aware of your timing.  Ask yourself: Why now?  Why not next year?  If I don't apply now, what will I do instead? What is the cost to applying now instead of applying later?  

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY 5: Thrive.  Beyond considerations of timing, think about thriving, not just surviving.  Survival is a minimally necessary condition but it is insufficient if one is ambitious. I assume my readers and clients are ambitious.  Hence, whatever you do, whether it is applying for graduate school in  2021 or whenever or never, have a strategy for thriving.  Whatever your constraints, focus on something that will help you thrive. Focus your time and energy on graduate school applications, your career, hobbies, intellectual pursuits, physical fitness, volunteer activities, personal relationships, starting a business, etc.  There is no one way to succeed.  Overcoming constraints imposed by world historical crisis is not something new for humans, just something new for us. Act with sufficient awareness, flexibility, and focus to thrive.  You may ask what that has to do with graduate school application and my answer is simple: Thriving shows growth and growth will get you admitted.  

Finally, I wrote this blog post between May 7th and 8th, 2020 and hope that in the coming months I will look back upon it as outdated and too pessimistic.

The Worst of Times Creates New Options: Applying for MBA and Other Graduate Programs Now

The Coronavirus pandemic  is a pure example of a  VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) situation. To get my head around how it would impact MBA students and applicants, I engaged  in some scenario analysis and as the situation develops, so is my thinking. In this post I give some initial suggestions for how to think about making application to MBA and other graduate programs in a VUCA world.

Considering to apply right now is about making a career and education decision in world that has suddenly become much more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. 
Volatile: For anyone considering the time and money required for a full-time MBA or other graduate program, whether in their home country or overseas, the current situation is extremely volatile in terms of both the pandemic itself and its effects on economy and society.
Uncertainty: It is certainly uncertain because we really have no clear idea how bad things will go for ourselves, our loved ones, our country, and our world.  It is also uncertain because we have no clear sense of how long this will last and what the aftereffects will be.  We can develop scenarios (like I did) to get some kind of perspective on this but these are just possible stories and knowing which scenario to act on is no easy thing.
Complex: It is complex because one needs to consider a greater number of options and outcomes based on either applying now, applying later, or not applying. Will it easier to get in to programs for 2021? If so, will Coronavirus be handled by then?  Should an applicant focus on GMAT, GRE, and/or TOEFL prep now or wait to see how how things shake out? Maybe it is better to wait until 2022? Alternatively for those considering applying to schools in their home country, is it better to apply for entry in 2020 because so much uncertainty is resulting in schools extending deadlines.  For example, for US citizens and residents, there is a good argument to apply right now for fall 2020 entry to MBA programs  if you don't primarily care about scholarships and prioritize getting the degree over the experience if programs stay distance-based in the fall (or even longer).
Ambiguous: It is ambiguous because both  the learning model and the outcome become much less certain. In terms of the learning model, for MBA programs that would be an experiential, group based learning experience with a diverse set of classmates in an intensive community.  This spring is already been totally disrupted into a much more limited distance based model. We cannot be certain that programs will return to normal by the fall. In terms of outcomes, the assumption for MBA and other types of professional graduate programs is that doing the program is a direct gateway to internships and employment but this becomes much less certain for all students if the world economy goes into a deep recession.  There are clear enough signs that the outcome is also in peril as employers are rescinding job and internship offers. For applicants with partners and applicants whose families will be providing financial support, the ambiguity of the return on investment for doing a graduate degree becomes much greater if they factor in what those in the classes of 2020 and 2021 are currently experiencing.  For those who are admitted for fall 2020 and those considering 2021, the question is will things recover fast enough that an MBA from a top school leads to the expected post-degree employment outcomes or does doing such a degree now result in loss of income and assets at the worst possible time?  It is, after all, one thing to graduate during a recovery and another to graduate during a prolonged recession.

How do we react to a VUCA situation?
It is my contention that we can react to such VUCA situations by panic, paralysis, or thoughtful action.

Panic is thoughtless action and results in, at best, lucky outcomes based on bad decision making. As someone who has experienced panic in the past (for example, panic about catching airplane flights), I know that my panic did not help me in the least and sometimes cost me (very expensive taxi rides to make an alternative flight and looking like an idiot). My panic started to go away when I began really thinking about what the worst case scenario was and started to create space for non-reactive thinking.  Attending a masters program in clinical and organizational psychology at INSEAD helped and so did doing mindfulness training. The more I have been able to get away from panic, the better the decisions I have made. I don't think I am unique. I fully expect some admits to graduate programs that commence in fall 2020 are experiencing panic. International students in the US are worried about their visa status.  International student admits for fall 2020 will be worried or already starting to worry about getting visas,  Those graduating in 2020 are worrying about jobs, those others are worried about internships. Those who planned to apply for 2021 admission are worried about everything happening in their daily lives and suddenly planning for the future takes a back seat.   Suddenly ones core life plans seems to be potentially falling apart.  This is an awful thing but also a moment for deeper consideration.

Paralysis only works if the most beneficial course of action is doing nothing and the situation returns to the status quo. There are certainly times when taking no action is actually best. There is a good argument for holding an investment in bad times and taking no action at all if one is playing a long-term game, however that is decision based on a strategy. Paralysis is about being unable to do any thinking about the future but to be so filled with doubt, anxiety, and fear that thinking can't occur. However decisions about your career or educational plans over the short to medium term will require action at a certain point. Hence active thinking and planning are critical.

Thoughtful action when we combine date gathering, deliberation, and reflection with the ability to make a decision. It means being able to create a space to think through an idea, have back-up plans, and remain mentally flexible.  Especially when VUCA is high you need to be able to think well, think often, and change your plans as the situation changes. Therefore, give yourself options: Focus on what Nicolas Nassim Taleb calls optionality from his now increasingly prophetic Antifragile.  A great explanation of the idea can be found here where its author, Taylor Pearson ,summarizes optionality as follows:
At the most basic level, optionality just means having lots of options.
If you develop a skill with many possible job opportunities, you have more optionality than someone who develops a skill that only has one or two job opportunities.
The advantage of optionality is that as the world grows increasingly difficult to predict, you can thrive in spite of not knowing the future.
You simply see what happens and exercise whichever option turns out to be most advantageous.
In other words, when you are facing a situation of great unpredictability have multiple winning strategies. Let's consider what that might be for fall 2020 admits and 2021 applicants.
First, now is stupid time for applying to or attending safety schools.  In uncertain times, the rush to safety seems rational, but going to school that will not give you the expected ROI that you want is not a safe decision, it is a stupid one.  Also the market has shifted from a seller's (school) to buyer's (applicant) market.  What is safety for one candidate is not for another. For  some people, nothing outside of HBS/Stanford/Wharton will make sense while for someone else it might be a top 20 school. Unless you simply must do an MBA, I would make the case that applicants right now for  3rd/4th round fall 2020 and for 2021 should only apply to what ever they would consider to be top schools.  Since the job market and internship opportunities might be limited go with a school less likely to be negatively impacted and with long-term brand value.  If you are going to take 10-24 months out of employment right now and probably go into debt and/or use your own or your family's assets, make the best possible investment you can.  That means if you are fall 2020 admit and don't really like where you have been admitted, wait to see if you can defer and apply to what you consider to be better programs for fall 2021.  To quote myself from a recent article in Poets and Quants: “For a long time, MBA admissions at top programs has been a seller’s (adcom) market but right now it is surely a buyer’s (applicants) market.  Applying now and for fall 2021 will be an immense buying opportunity for anyone who can flexible about what their MBA program will consist of.”

If you are admitted for fall 2020, don't quit your job until you have absolute certainty that you can start in the fall. If you are going to be an international student and dependent on a US, European, Singaporean, etc visa that has yet to be issued, don't quit your job for sure.  If the school gives you a distance option for the fall you may wish to take it while still working. If the school only offers deferral or if you prefer deferral, be in a position to work for the next year.  This gives you at least two winning options. If you want more, see below under "non-degree alternatives."

If you are planning to apply for 2021, I recommend you operate under the assumption that if you apply and are admitted, you may not attend anyway.  The reason for this is that will help to keep you focused on the bigger picture of your non-applicant life. Whether that is focusing on work, volunteer activities, or relationships, don't over-invest in the process because that will shut down your other options.  Depending on how much time and/or money one needs to invest into test preparation, learning about programs, and applications, the application process can be just one thing someone does or an all consuming activity.   I would make the argument that this is not the time to make it all consuming but to define how much effort one is willing to put into it.  If a new client asked right now whether it was better to invest extra time into getting a job promotion or into getting a few more points on the GRE or GMAT right now, my answer would be easy: Focus on the promotion because if the world sinks into an extended recession or depression,  you may decide to put off an MBA for a few years.

You want to make a change in your career and life soon and view doing a graduate degree as the way to do that. Well, consider non-degree alternatives for the next 1-2 years:  Yes, I do give advice that seemingly operates contrary to his own short-term economic interest (having clients this year). That is because I take a long-term perspective on what is in my interest. I am interested in helping clients get into top schools and being able to make the best possible case for themselves. Hence someone who learns a new language, learns how to code, passes CFA, starts volunteering, or gets a new job that adds a new dimension to them becomes a better candidate. And better candidates get into schools, say wonderful things about to potential clients, and keep my business going. When I conduct initial consultations, I have frequently told a prospective client that they could apply now or later because I take a long-term perspective.

Finally, I think you should take a long-term perspective too! That means  thinking deeply on what you want out of life and what point you need to reach certain objectives. Society, family, friends, and yourself will tell you what you should do in the future based on what has happened in the past. If our current crisis is a reminder of anything, it is that past practices are not always appropriate for building a successful future.

International Student MBA Deferment for Fall 2020

In general, whatever HBS does, I assume there is a good chance the rest of the business school world will follow.  Harvard Business School is  at the top of food chain, regardless in whatever their ranking at the moment might be or relative difficulty of entrance.  That has been one of my core assumptions about MBA programs and I think we see that is the case now.  And so my deferment assumption in my CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON U.S. AND EUROPEAN MBA PROGRAMS AND ADMISSIONS: THREE SCENARIOS from March 16th is now becoming a reality. On March 20th, HBS's admissions director, Chad Losee, communicated the following:
"We hope that the global situation around COVID-19 improves and that the suspension of visa services passes quickly. The Harvard International Office and we in MBA Admissions and Financial Aid will do all that we can to support students through the visa process. Any international admitted student who is unable to start the program due to a visa issue despite their best efforts will be deferred to next year’s MBA class."

Given that US consulates are closed for anything other than permanent visa issuance, no one will be getting a student visa from the US even if they could travel there.  How long this will last is uncertain but if it goes for months, this could pose a real problem for a possible start in fall 2020 on a US campus.
If you have been admitted for the Class of 2020, I highly recommend you do the following:

1. Keep on working.
2. Plan out a deferment strategy in terms of your career and life.
3. If you are deferring, consider whether you want to apply for more programs for Fall 2021 entrance.
4. If the school offers you an online/distance option instead of deferment closely consider the value proposition of a partially or fully delivered distance MBA.

The situation is obviously highly dynamic, so I think you should keep all your options open because in times like this optionality in planning is critical.

Columbia Business School Extends Application for August 2020 to June 1st

In a further sign of uncertain times,  Columbia Business School has extended its final deadline for August 2020 from April to June 1st.   Assistant Dean of Admissions, Amanda Carlson,  is being completely transparent about this decision:
"Columbia Business School has decided to extend its application deadline for the August 2020 incoming class until June 1, 2020.
Let me explain why we are making this decision. To be as transparent as possible, and I anticipate that I am not alone in my thinking: admissions offices at many business schools do not know what will happen with our incoming classes.
Why am I telling you this? By all counts, our incoming class looks great. Application volume is even up .8% year to date. However, COVID-19 is an evolving situation and we too are trying to anticipate what comes next with our incoming class. We plan to admit more candidates toward the end of this application cycle in anticipation that some of our admitted students may struggle, for a variety of reasons, to start in August 2020.
If you are thinking about submitting an application to Columbia Business School, and wonder if it’s too late, it’s not. We are extending the deadline and plan to admit more candidates who will be a great fit in our community. "

I think this represents a great opportunity, especially for US citizens and residents , to apply to Columbia.  It is very reasonable to assume that there will be availability in the program.  Especially for anyone in New York City who was considering application, I suggest applying as long as you don't mind that you missed the fellowship deadline of January.  Also, do keep in mind the possibility of significant changes to the program as result of  the possible need to switch to distance education even after this spring. For more about that,  see my recent post where I analyze the possible impacts of Coronavirus on MBA students and applicants.

If you are international applicant, I think you should really only consider doing this if you can anticipate a relatively easy US visa process.

If you have not taken GMAT or GRE, keep in mind that Columbia (and also Stern) accept the Executive Assessment (EA) for the regular MBA program as well for Executive programs. I had three clients admitted to CBS so far based on EA scores for 2020 entrance.  It is a faster and by all accounts easier test to take.  Also for those good at Integrated Reasoning, that section is 1/3 of the total core for the test, which can help to mitigate a lower verbal or quant score.

For more about applying to Columbia, please see here.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON US AND EUROPEAN MBA PROGRAMS AND ADMISSIONS: THREE SCENARIOS

I am utilizing Professor Paul N. Friga’s Scenario Planning for Coronavirus (https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2020/03/13/using-strategic-thinking-and-scenario-planning-deal-coronavirus-opinion) which is based on scenarios developed by McKinsey’s Global Health + Criss Response team’s analysis. While Frick's analysis is addressed to higher education institutions, my consideration is the impact on MBA students and applicants. Specifically, I will consider how different scenarios result in potentially very different outcomes for MBA student experience and impact on MBA applicants. My scenarios go from mild to extremely disruptive.  I hope for the best case scenario (Global Slowdown), expect my base case (Global Pandemic and Recession), and worry about my worst case, Prolonged Global Pandemic and Recession/Depression.

For those who don't want to read through my scenarios, please see the suggestions for current students, admits for fall 2020 and applicants for 2021 at the end of this post.

McKinsey had originally projected three scenarios. Frick’s summary:

• Quick recovery (least likely)
• Global slowdown (base case)
• Global pandemic and recession (conservative case)

The quick-recovery scenario predicts that outbreaks grow until the second quarter of 2020 but begin to slow; the economic impact is mostly felt in the first quarter and will bounce back to normalcy in the second quarter. Global slowdown envisions a major slowdown through the third quarter of this year, with China controlling and restarting its supply chain in the second quarter. Impact on sectors will vary based upon magnitude of transmission, the death rate, seasonality effects and consumer reaction. Hardest-hit areas will be aviation, tourism, hospitality and consumer goods. Finally, global pandemic and recession would result in economic malaise through the end of 2020, with widespread interruptions in supply chains, air travel and the like and continued community outbreaks.

Given the many schools that have already announced that will be going online for the Spring Term, I think we can dismiss the Quick Recovery scenario.  The best case at this point is Global Slowdown but given that WHO has already stated it is a Global Pandemic, I think we can safely assume that Global Pandemic and Recession is the base case.  So, we need a new third case, which I will call Prolonged Global Pandemic and Recession/Depression (Worst case). See, for example, here, here and here for why such a scenario needs to be considered.

What I have done on the following tables is take Frick’s analysis and consider how it might impact students, incoming students for fall 2020 and applicants for 2021. Frick identifies 4 context variables (teaching, operations, community, and financials for higher education institutions), which I have utilized below.   Please note all content in “FRICK SCENARIO” below is taken directly from Frick and placed in quotes.  All other content is mine.  With respect to Global Slowdown, I have already modified it because Frick's scenario of just a few days ago is already too optimistic as business schools have already or are going online.

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN:  Scenario assumes a return to the status quo pre-Coronavirus by fall 2020. Also assumes the global economy begins recovery by end of 2020. Hence I keep this scenario as the optimistic option which assumes things suddenly get better really quickly because Coronavirus hates the spring and summer and containment measures prevent a massive return in the fall.

FRICK CONTEXT VARIABLES	FRICK SCENARIO ANALYSIS (and MARKUS comments)	IMPACT ON MBA STUDENTS FOR 2020-2021	IMPACT ON MBA APPLICANTS FOR ENTRY IN 2021
TEACHING	“Major effect on many campuses on spring residential classes and canceling of study abroad programs” PLUS spring and summer programs go online or are cancelled. Programs commence normally in the fall. Comment:  This is has already happened. B-Schools are switching to online format so we have already moved into McKinsey’s Global Pandemic Scenario.  It is still an open question whether summer and fall classes will be cancelled/switch to online.	-No on-campus program for spring 2020. This will obviously significantly impact the student experience. -In the US, international students visas will still be valid for those who have already commenced studies at this time. See here on the current visa policy for  international students if programs shift to distance based. -Potentially significant impact on recruiting and interning for summer 2020 -Potential impact on visa issuance (delays) and entry for new students commencing studies in summer/fall 2020	No huge impact because programs will have returned to normal by fall. However, no campus visits possible in the spring of 2020.  Assumes a return to campus and the regular campus and off-campus admissions event schedule by the fall. Possible delay in test preparation because of uncertainty about applying leads to reduced applications for Round 1 for fall 2021 entry. Applications increase significantly in Round 2.
OPERATIONS	“Many employees affected and not able to work; others work from home; conferences canceled in spring and perhaps summer; employee travel limited; major campus cleaning” Comment: This  has already happened and/or is happening.	For this spring, programs with strong distance learning programs will be able to more quickly expand their service offerings than those that don’t. Depending the school, students will have a highly variable distance learning experience. Assuming a return to normalcy by fall, no significant long-term impact except for greater preparation for the next similar kind of crisis.	The primary process for admissions is online so this will not prove to be significant.  Many interviews have already been conducted online/by telephone for many years.
COMMUNITY	Canceled attendance at sporting and other events; coordination with local department of health and other communities on risks/actions“ Comment: This is has already happened and/or is happening. All events on B-schools campuses have been cancelled.	Given the high value placed on the on-campus, in-person group experience, clubs and networking,  there will be a significant negative impact on the experience for this spring. However, students are comfortable with on-line communications, so workarounds will be put in place. -Assumes a return to normalcy by fall 2020	Applicants will learn about programs virtually and through online communication during the spring but can visit campus again in fall 2020.
FINANCIALS (IMPACT ON SCHOOLS’ FINANCIALS)	“Major .5 to 4.9 percent of operating expense” Comment: This is has already happened and/or is happening at the university level.	No certainty whether short-term financials would have any significant impact on students at well-funded B-schools. Assume marginal or no impact. Applicants will learn about programs virtually and through online communication during the spring but can visit campus again in fall 2020.	Admissions offices will scramble to increase on-campus and off-campus events in order to make up for lost time.

Global Pandemic and Recession: This is my base case based on the fact that WHO has already indicated it is a Global Pandemic.  Assumes a recession lasting into 2021.

FRICK CONTEXT VARIABLES	FRICK SCENARIO ANALYSIS (and MARKUS comments)	IMPACT ON MBA STUDENTS FOR 2020-2021	IMPACT ON MBA APPLICANTS FOR ENTRY IN 2021
TEACHING	“Dramatic effect -- spring, summer and fall in-person classes canceled/switched to online format” Comment: We have entered this scenario. It is an open question as to whether the situation will have improved by the summer or fall.	For all students, a total change in what they had expected to experience. -For international students, the real possibility that they would be unable to travel to campus and be offered either a total distance or mixed distance/short-term residential (possibly at satellite locations) experience. High likelihood of experiencing 1-2 years by distance.  Visa difficulties.  Reduced opportunities to work in the US/Europe -Depending on the school and the situation as it unfolds, admits for fall 2020 could be offered deferment, especially if they are international students.	Applicants will wonder about the continued value proposition offered by full-time programs that will not in fact operate for part of their degree as full-time total experience. -Applicants will increasingly be invited by schools to view/experience online classes in order for schools to promote their continued value proposition. -International student applications to MBA programs will greatly decline assuming that visa/travel remains difficult. -Acceptance rates at all programs will increase significantly for fall 2021 as applicants will decide to wait until 2022 entry to apply.
OPERATIONS	“Campus shutdowns through end of fall semester; employee layoffs/furloughs” Comment: MBA programs have the technical capability to deliver a total online experience so while campus services would be greatly reduced. Faculty, administration, career services, and IT can continue to function.	Students entering would experience an online education for at least the fall semester of 2020 and possibly all of the 2020-2021 academic year. -For all students, a change to the recruiting process for those who avail themselves of on-campus processes. That said, assume that career services offices will be able to make a full switchover to an online model by fall 2020. -Significant reduction in placement opportunities for both internships and recruitment similar to past recessions. The lower ranked the program, the greater the impact.	All interviewing will be conducted online. Team-based interview processes will need to be further refined and/or prove so burdensome that they will be eliminated.
COMMUNITY	Canceled fall sports, concerts and major events; preparation for shutdown of local tourism/restaurant offerings” Comment: If programs are run on distance basis none of this will matter.	After working through the challenges of organizing an online community by fall 2020, a workable solution would be in place for online communications, socializing, and networking.  Professional and other clubs not requiring in-person activity would continue to function. Other clubs (sports for example) would go dormant.	Applicants will wonder what kind of community they will experience
FINANCIALS (IMPACT ON SCHOOLS’ FINANCIALS)	“Dramatic 5 to 50 percent of operating expenses” Comment: This applies to all higher education institutions and is not MBA specific. Assume that schools with more money can handle this change more effectively.	Comment:  Assume possible impact on tuition and scholarships at schools with less deep coffers and/or those that experience significantly reduced enrollment.	Applicants will be closely considering opportunity costs.  While the numbers of those entering into MBA programs (and other graduate schools) typically increases during a recession without good prospects for employment post-degree, the value proposition for an MBA program will look weak in the short-term, which may very well reduce the number of applications.  Assuming that there is no huge number of seats set aside for admits for fall 2020 who deferred until 2021, assume acceptance rates will increase as the number of applications will be reduced.

Prolonged Global Pandemic and Recession or a Depression: Scenario is based on Coronavirus causing prolonged disruptions to the economy, free movement between borders, visa issuance, and the potential need for extended and rolling periods of social distancing and other negative impacts on offering an on-campus MBA program.  Assumes that either the virus does not reduce in the spring/summer of 2020 or a second wave of the virus hits in fall 2020 and continues well into 2021. Assumes the worst case.

FRICK CONTEXT VARIABLES	SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR MBA PROGRAMS	IMPACT ON MBA STUDENTS FOR 2020-2021	IMPACT ON MBA APPLICANTS FOR ENTRY IN 2021
TEACHING	Need for a total switch to online higher education and a partial or complete disruption to the existing on-campus/experiential/group based model prevalent in business schools for at least 2020-2021. Best case for continuity would be blended learning like in Executive/Distance MBA programs (distance plus short-term residential). The programs with strong online/distance learning in place already are best equipped to handle this change. As are schools that rely less on community engagement and more on class attendance.	The graduating MBA classes of 2021 and 2022 experience a distance-based education with limited or no campus experience. Campus based programs return in either fall 2021 or as late as fall 2022.	See prior base case scenario but assume that the level of pessimism about a return to normality on the part of both schools and applicants results in programs shifting to a distance offering and a radically changed value proposition.   Assume a significant decline in applicants
OPERATIONS	Need for major restructuring, at least over the next 1-2 years.	Assumes no campus experience except for possible short-term programming.  Experiential programming maybe possible but will require reinvention.	See prior scenario. Assume that career services will have to radically change itself to be of any relevance to international applicants.  Schools like LBS and INSEAD are better positioned to handle this than schools with a domestic recruiting focus.  The US schools will have to consider greatly expanding their international career service focus to offer  one of the core expectations of full time students.
COMMUNITY	Online community as primary. Switch to the distance model which in some cases allows for short-term in-person study.	For those impacted, their experience of community will be virtual and/or short-term in-person.	Applicants will put very little value on community because essentially schools will be only offering a weaker one.  In this respect schools like Tuck that are highly dependent on selling a community experience are facing a potential radical drop in applications.
FINANCIALS (IMPACT ON SCHOOLS’ FINANCIALS)	Unknown for MBA programs that currently charge comparable tuition regardless of method of delivery and hence might actually save money by reducing on-campus operations	Potentially significant impact on the MBA value proposition. Possible changes to tuition/scholarships. -Experience interacting with diverse people would be virtual. Limited opportunities for deep connection or bonding and no opportunity to live abroad.	Applications will significantly decrease. Strong applicants will get large scholarships.  Programs with deep pockets will offer incredibly large scholarships to keep their numbers up. For those who want a degree regardless of the experience offered, this will be an ideal time to apply.

For those already attending an MBA program, for the most part, you will likely have to deal with the cards you have been dealt.  You will get your degree but perhaps not the experience you had hoped for.  I don't have any specific suggestions for you except that you should make the most of a very changed situation.   Certainly this is a good opportunity to focus on hard skill development (coding, financial analysis, analytics), language learning, and online networking.

For Fall 2020 admits, I have a number of suggestions to maximize your ability to choose what is right for you.  I believe in optionality Use it to your advantage:

1. If you are currently employed, don't quit till you can really decide whether to enter in fall 2020.
2. If you are offered the option of a deferment consider taking it if the experience of being in the MBA program is as important to you as just getting the degree.  Things are likely to be better in academic year 2021-2022 than in academic year 2020-2021.
3. If you are primarily concerned with the degree (and the brand associated with it) and an online format works for you, then attending now, in whatever format it is offered in, makes a lot of sense.
4. I would highly recommend trying to maximize any scholarships from programs if their value proposition has been radically altered because the program has become distance-based.
5. If the school(s) you have been admitted to don't have a clear plan for what will happen if you can't get a visa or travel, request they establish one. My assumption is that such plans will be in place.
6. If you are an international student, given that the US and Europe may very well be more dangerous than where you are now, factor that into your decision.
7. Consider how a recession might impact your short to medium term employment, depending on how things go being in school during such a downturn can be a good way to escape the worst of it or unfortunate if you graduate at the wrong time.

For applicants applying for 2021 entry, beyond considering what I just mentioned for admits, there are a number of things to consider:

1. My base assumption is that it will be easier to get admitted to an MBA program for 2021 entrance because the current crisis and all the uncertainty around it will likely reduce the number of applicants.
2. For those who care more about getting a degree than the way it might be experienced, 2021 entrance might be the best possible year for ease of entrance.
3. However If many admits for fall 2020 can defer for a year, entry in 2021 might be the same or more difficult than it was for prior to Coronavirus.
4. If you are considering application for 2021 entrance, I do recommend focusing as much as you can on test prep right now because many potential applicants will be too distracted to do it.  They will be focused on worrying about the current situation and uncertain whether to apply. While I cannot be absolutely certain,  I expect the number of Round 1 applications to be low because too many applicants will be distracted and not ready in time for that round. Assuming the outlook improves in the fall and life returns to relative normality, I expect a stronger Round 2.
5. The good news is that you don't need to worry about whether you visited a program, on the other hand, you had better attend their online chats and info sessions.
6.  Assuming either my base or worst case, if you are unsure about whether you would enjoy doing a partial or completely distance based course, I suggest you take one now and figure that out.
7. Finally beyond doing MBA admissions consulting, I do offer degree planning for those who are a year or more from making application.  To learn more how I can help you with either MBA or other graduate degree admissions  or with degree planning, please complete my intake form.

Finally, I know the above scenarios are speculative and I am sure that I will be reconsidering this analysis as the situation develops.